In the past week, Bitcoin faced notable shifts in market dynamics, marked by $2.2 billion in outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). During this period, the average holding time of transacted Bitcoin hit a record high.

Grayscale, a major player in the crypto investment landscape, currently holds 566,973 BTC ($23.21 billion). This represents a decrease of approximately 52,227 BTC ($2.14 billion) since the approval of the Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF).

Other key entities holding Bitcoin include iShares (BlackRock) with 33,431 BTC ($1.37 billion), Fidelity with 24,857 BTC ($1.02 billion), and Bitwise with 10,152 BTC ($415.6 million).

Speculations On Bitcoin Outflow And Potential Bitcoin Price Drop Below $40,000 Level

Speculations arose about the impact of the GBTC outflows on Bitcoin’s price. An analyst suggested that Bitcoin might either continue declining or remain stable until the complete liquidation of the $25 billion in GBTC. However, Galaxy Digital’s Mike Novogratz disagreed, predicting that while some may sell GBTC, the majority will shift to other ETFs, and Bitcoin’s value will rise in the next six months.

Contrarily, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, forecasted a Bitcoin drop below $40,000. He took a position by purchasing put options with a strike price of $35,000 expiring on March 29. 

Hayes anticipates a continuous decline until the US Treasury’s quarterly payout on January 31. The speculated cost for these put options could be around 0.025 BTC per share, with a total potential value of 5 BTC.

This divergence in expert opinions adds uncertainty to Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory, leaving investors closely monitoring market developments.

Disclosure: This is not trading or investment advice. Always do your research before buying any cryptocurrency or investing in any services.

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