Market cap and token price are fundamental indicators of a cryptocurrency’s value, yet they can behave differently under various market conditions.

Understanding this relationship is crucial for making informed decisions in the crypto space.

Rising Market Cap Despite Falling Token Prices

At first glance, it might seem contradictory for a market cap to rise while token prices are near all-time lows. However, this scenario often unfolds due to changes in the circulating supply and broader market trends. Let’s explore two common situations where this occurs:

1. Increased Circulating Supply

Token unlocks, a common feature in many crypto projects, can increase the circulating supply even as prices decline. Projects typically follow a vesting schedule that gradually releases tokens into the market. When more tokens are released, the market cap can rise even if the token’s price is falling.

Example: In 2023, the price of $APT fell from $18 to $5. Despite this sharp decline, its market cap remained around $2.5 billion and occasionally increased to $2.9 billion due to the continuous release of tokens as part of its vesting schedule.

2. Bearish Market Conditions

In a bear market, retail investors often sell off their holdings, causing token prices to drop. However, the market cap can still hold steady or even increase due to higher token emissions.

Example: $SUI reached an all-time high of $2.09 with a market cap of $2.3 billion. By March 2024, despite challenging market conditions and ongoing token unlocks, the price fell to $0.80, but the market cap remained steady at $2.3 billion.

3. Reserved Tokens

Projects often reserve tokens for future development, ecosystem growth, or partnerships. These tokens, held in specific wallets and not sold immediately, can boost the circulating supply and market cap even if prices decline.

A growing market cap amidst falling prices can be confusing, but it’s frequently linked to shifts in token supply and overall market trends. Understanding the nuances between market cap, token price, and the impact of token unlocks helps demystify these seemingly contradictory scenarios.

Disclosure: This is not trading or investment advice. Always do your research before buying any cryptocurrency or investing in any services.

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