Now that the release of Segregated Witness is coming ever closer, it is due time the developers decide on the activation threshold. Right now, there is no clear indication as to when and how this new feature will be activated on the Bitcoin network. The last we heard revolved around a 95% consensus among miners, which may be impossible to achieve right now.
Although the deployment of Segregated Witness will not happen overnight, the time has come to look forward to when it happens. The biggest concern is how this threshold is supposed to be activated as Bitcoin Core developers seem rather unsure about the method of doing so.
The latest discussions regarding activating Segregated Witness mentioned there would be a need for 95% consensus on the Bitcoin network. To put this into perspective, nearly all miners and mining pools would have to agree on implementing this solution before it activates. While 95% would be an overwhelming support, it is also doubtful that threshold is realistic right now.
At the same time, it is also possible a new activation threshold will be established Activating this implementation without a majority consensus will be very difficult, though. It would set a very dangerous precedent for the future of Bitcoin development as well, which would not be the best course of action by any means.
Even a smaller mining pool could prevent Segregated Witness from being activated if a 95% threshold is required. Given the recent surge in popularity of Bitcoin Unlimited – although no pool is officially running it in a live environment – reaching that 6% ‘blockade” may take far less effort than some people anticipate.
It will be interesting to see how the Bitcoin Core developers to tackle this problem. It may still take several months until the activation of Segregated Witness becomes an actual issue that needs to be tackled. Planning ahead is never a bad thing, though, and thinking twice about a 95% threshold may not be a bad idea.
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