This week in review
This week bitcoin’s price was another roller coaster reaching a high of $329 on BTC-E. We witnessed a promising rally on December 26th which set a new high, however, the bears crushed it setting last week’s low of $307. The current pattern seems to be mini rallies with high volatility followed by a brutal crushing. We witnessed a similar situation on December 20th where we bottomed out at $316 after a 24 hour rally of a $10 run, shown in the chart below:
It seems that we are bottoming out at the $300-$310 price point as the bears fight the bulls. We do have a strong support level at $300 which is both mental and the result of the fact that we double bottomed 10 days ago which might point to a trend reversal. The top chart on tradingview currently suggests that decision time is coming soon. Meaning that, soon we will either see a complete trend reversal followed by rally causing a price adjustment, or crypto is going to crash harder than a smart car hit by an oncoming XL UPS truck full of Christmas presents. Here is the chart:
Elliot Waves – decision coming soon
The second and third most popular charts on tradingview hold a LONG position anticipating a trend reversal. The user Hen0xyd used Elliot Waves to predict a trend change coming at the beginning of 2015.
Ralph Nelson Elliott , Born on July 28, 1871 examined yearly, monthly, weekly, daily, hourly and half-hourly charts of the various indexes covering 75 years of stock market behavior. Using his wave theory he was able to predict the day that the Dow Jones’ 13 – a popular stock market index – month bearish correction ended. He sent out a telegram to Charles J. Collins of Investment Counsel, Inc. in Detroit the day before the trend reversal:
“NOTWITHSTANDING BEARISH (DOW) IMPLICATIONS ALL AVERAGES ARE MAKING FINAL BOTTOM.”
Bitcoin has experienced a year long decline ever since the December 2013 high, could Elliot Wave Theory be able to predict the end of the bearish market? Below is a demonstration of Elliot’s decision making theory.
“When diagonal triangles occur in the fifth or C wave position, they take the 3-3-3-3-3 shape that Elliott described. I think dotted-blue support will hold on daily closing price, around $300, but yes $275 or less may occur. I fail to see lower than 250 because of alltime trendline, old ATH, lots of big players accumulating OTC and how much money are now in stakes with VC’s in the place. Pretty sure some whales will try anyway 😀 -Hen0xyd”
Some current trading strategies may include cashing in on those mini rallies. If you are day trading, wait for an intermediate dump which usually happens at night when traders that hedled the day before come back online and sell at a loss. Next, buy in and hodl for a couple hours during the day and sell when the dilusional noobs notice the mini rally, and start preaching that we are launching to mars. For you risky whales your perfect scenario would be to time your buy in just right before the trend reversal, just like Elliot. As a disclaimer we are not responsible for any losses caused as a result of the above opinion.
Lets hope for a mega rally to carry us to the moon and beyond, for now the fate of bitcoin is hard to determine (as always). One thing is for certain, analysts agree that a decision is coming. That decision will determine if the year long trend will come to a halt and turn 180 degrees, or we crash harder setting new lows. If you liked this article follow us on twitter @btc_feed