Bitcoin is closing out 2025 on its weakest footing in years. The final quarter of the year is now shaping up as the cryptocurrency’s worst Q4 performance since 2018, breaking a long-standing seasonal trend that typically favors bullish momentum.
With just one week remaining in the year, Bitcoin is down 22.54% in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to data from Coinglass. The magnitude of the decline places this quarter among the most severe year-end drawdowns in Bitcoin’s trading history.
The last time Bitcoin suffered a comparable Q4 collapse was in 2018, when the asset closed the quarter down 42.16%. That period marked the depths of a prolonged bear market. The current downturn is different in structure, but the numbers are forcing investors to reassess assumptions about year-end strength.
October Peak Gives Way To Sustained Bearish Pressure
The weakness becomes clearer when viewed from Bitcoin’s October high.
Bitcoin peaked at $126,198 in October 2025. Since then, price action has steadily deteriorated. As of now, the asset trades near $87,201, representing a decline of 30.82% from its recent high.
This slide has defined the tone of the entire quarter. Selling pressure has persisted. Bounces have been short-lived. And confidence has eroded as macro uncertainty and profit-taking converge.
The decline has not been isolated to Bitcoin alone. The broader crypto market has followed suit, with losses cascading across major assets.
Over $1 Trillion Erased From Crypto Market Value
The impact of Bitcoin’s fourth-quarter slump has extended well beyond its own chart.
Since October, more than $1 trillion has been wiped from the global cryptocurrency market capitalization. Total market value has fallen from over $4.1 trillion just a few months ago to approximately $2.91 trillion today.
Bitcoin’s dominance in the market means its movements carry outsized influence. As prices retreated, liquidity thinned. Risk appetite faded. And capital rotated out of speculative positions.
The scale of the drawdown underscores how tightly correlated the crypto market remains to Bitcoin’s performance, particularly during periods of stress.
A Quarter That Defies Bitcoin’s Historical Q4 Strength
What makes Q4 2025 stand out is how sharply it diverges from historical norms.
Historically, the final quarter of the year has been Bitcoin’s strongest. Since 2013, Q4 has delivered an average gain of 77.11% and a median gain of 47.73%. In that period, Bitcoin posted positive returns in Q4 eight times, with gains ranging from as low as 5.45% to as high as 479.59%.
Losses have been rare. Bitcoin has only recorded five negative fourth quarters, including the current one.
This history has conditioned investors to expect strength late in the year. Q4 has often coincided with renewed optimism, institutional inflows, and narrative-driven rallies. Q4 2025 has broken that pattern decisively.
The current drawdown has now been widely discussed across crypto media, with analysts pointing to its historical significance.
What Past Recoveries Reveal About Potential Paths Ahead
History does not repeat perfectly, but it does offer context.
After Bitcoin plunged 42% in Q4 2018, the market stabilized in early 2019. In Q1 of that year, Bitcoin posted a modest 8.74% gain. That recovery set the stage for a powerful rebound in Q2, when prices surged 159.36%.
That momentum did not last uninterrupted. Bitcoin recorded a 22.86% loss in Q3 2019, followed by another 13.54% decline in Q4. The pattern showed that early recoveries can be uneven.
Losses carried into 2020, with Bitcoin dipping another 10.83% in Q1. From there, the cycle turned decisively. Bitcoin went on to post strong gains of 42.33% in Q2, 17.97% in Q3, and a massive 168.02% rally in Q4 2020.
More recently, Bitcoin’s 14.75% loss in Q4 2022 was followed by a dramatic rebound. In Q1 2023, the asset surged 71.77%, surprising many who had positioned defensively after the year-end drop.
These historical episodes suggest that sharp Q4 losses do not necessarily signal prolonged weakness. In several cases, they preceded meaningful recoveries.
Two Scenarios Emerge For Bitcoin In 2026
As Bitcoin heads into 2026, history points to two plausible outcomes.
The first scenario is a relief rally in Q1 2026. This would align with patterns observed after Q4 losses in 2018 and 2022, where early-year recoveries followed heavy year-end selling. Under this outcome, stabilization and renewed buying interest could emerge as market participants reposition.
The second scenario is less immediately optimistic. Bitcoin could post another loss in Q1 2026, mirroring its performance after the Q4 2019 decline. In that case, weakness early in the year would not necessarily be the end of the story. Historically, that path has still led to explosive gains later in the year, particularly in Q2, Q3, and Q4.
In other words, a bearish start to 2026 would not rule out a broader recovery. It could simply delay it.
For now, Bitcoin remains under pressure. The fourth quarter of 2025 has already secured its place in history. Whether it marks the end of a cycle or the midpoint of a larger reset will depend on how the market responds in the months ahead.
What is clear is that the long-assumed strength of Q4 is no longer guaranteed. And Bitcoin’s next move will once again test investor conviction.
Disclosure: This is not trading or investment advice. Always do your research before buying any cryptocurrency or investing in any services.
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