With Bitcoin’s price rising so quickly in the past few hours, the RSI has passed a reasonable threshold for a healthy market. At the current RSI of 75, the technical indicator is signalling an overbought market.
An overbought market means that all of the buyers’ assets have depleted. Since the weekend is here, most banks will not be open for a few days. Traders will have a harder time getting funds on exchanges to keep up the buy volume. If this theory holds true, expect a consolidation period and a price pullback.
In truth, since Bitcoin is in uncharted territory, most technical indicators are highly unreliable. Another data that could help us predict Bitcoin’s future price is past market reaction after a period of stability.
The above chart shows prior instances where Bitcoin’s price was stable for a period of time and then broke out, compared to the current price action. As you can see there are variations where the price dips and where it rises, based on the plotted data it looks like Bitcoin’s price will be heading in some direction in the next few weeks. At the current rate, it looks like that direction is going to be up.
Shadows_Collide from r/BitcoinMarkets brings up an interesting point:
“The consolidation periods are getting shorter and shorter and I wonder how long this can last. Will it simply reverse and move slower again or will we see a crazy rally a’la pre-2014 that surpasses several Fibonacci numbers before crashing >50%?
This is my prediction: We’ll see at least 4500 before 3000 and we’ll see it within 30 days. Then we’ll revisit sub-3500, and maybe even have a wick below 3000, before entering the next consolidation period.”
At the time of writing Bitcoin is up 8% in the past 24 hours, trading at $3736 on Bitstamp. Right behind it, Ethereum is also up 3% struggling to keep along. Surprisingly, not many other cryptocurrencies are following Bitcoin’s trend. Furthermore, most of the trading volume is on Bitcoin as the mainstream outlets keep their focus is on the crypto.
These are exciting times for the cryptocurrency ecosystem as a whole and shows a new level of adoption. No longer are the days like 2014 where 76% of the population still didn’t know what Bitcoin was.