The shifting political landscape seems to be granting a new kind of viability to the idea of former President Trump establishing a Bitcoin reserve if he wins a second term.
The Betfair Exchange, along with Polymarket, allow users to gauge the likelihood of certain events happening by placing and accepting bets. If you’re betting on a certain outcome, you might say that you’re “bullish” on that event. The two platforms signal that users are becoming ever more “bullish” on the idea of Trump establishing a Bitcoin reserve. For both platforms, the idea that Trump would adopt this policy has gone from something perhaps kind of a joke to something that users of both platforms are increasingly betting isn’t a joke anymore.
This change in odds expresses the increasing interest and seeming potential for a national Bitcoin reserve under a Trump administration—something that has drawn both curiosity and concern in the financial and cryptocurrency communities. Polymarket, a popular prediction market platform, has seen quite a bit of trading activity around the question of whether Trump will act to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve during his early months in office. To date, the total volume of trades taken on that question is $8.4 million.
Political Momentum and Bitcoin’s Growing Role
Bitcoin has more and more been seen as a financial asset that has the potential to change global monetary systems. Political figures have taken note of this. For months, Trump has been quite public about his views on cryptocurrencies, with a particular focus on Bitcoin. The former president has stated that he thinks American finance could have a future that involves Bitcoin playing a significant role. If, in his second term and not a moment before, Trump were to set aside even a relatively small quantity of Bitcoin to use as a reserve, that would be Earth-shatteringly unprecedented.
The increasing probabilities on Polymarket indicate that investors and traders are beginning to entertain this idea more seriously. The market has shown a rising confidence in Trump potentially being able to pull off such a big, bold investment move, even with all the political and regulatory problems one would expect to come with it. The odds at 23% still seem to us to be a long shot, but they also seem to be rising steadily enough to make one consider that maybe, just maybe, the establishment of a Bitcoin reserve by the government could happen in the next few years.
The prediction market reflects a general bullishness toward President Trump’s proposal to back the U.S. dollar with Bitcoin. Placing a 23% likelihood on that proposal coming to fruition is really something considering how far-fetched this all sounded less than a year ago. It’s not a joke, and it’s certainly not something to dismiss lightly.
Future Outlook: A National Bitcoin Reserve by 2026?
Though the chances of a Bitcoin reserve existing within Trump’s first 100 days have risen to 23%, the forecast for when we might see a National Bitcoin Reserve is much more optimistic. Prediction market Kalshi gives a 71% chance that Trump will create a NBR by 2026. This forecast highlights the prospect of a radical shift in how the next Trump administration would have U.S. government and central banks handle not just Bitcoin but other digital assets as well.
The concept of a National Bitcoin Reserve would mark an unparalleled advance for a major power; it would amount to nothing less than making Bitcoin part of the governmental financial architecture. Such a move would lend even more legitimacy to Bitcoin as a kind of digital gold. It could also inspire other countries to take similar steps. And, of course, all of this happening under the aegis of the most powerful country in the world would be bad news for critics of Bitcoin—those who see it as a means to finance terrorism, as a bubbles that have and will again pop, or as a playground for the lawless.
Kalshi’s forecast gives a 71% chance that a National Bitcoin Reserve will exist by 2026. This signals to us that a decent number of people believe that Bitcoin’s growth is not only continuing but maybe even accelerating. And they foresee it becoming something big enough to warrant the U.S. government, under whatever administration, to set aside a reserve of it.
Trump’s Upcoming Crypto Summit: A Game-Changer?
The discussions could take a new turn tomorrow because, at the expected Trump-directed White House Crypto Summit, the former president is likely to lay out something of a regulatory vision for the digital currency space. Expect him to weigh in on the framework for addressing the future role of such currencies in American and global trade, if not also on the idea that establishing a “National Bitcoin Reserve” might be part of any should-be-happening-over-there financial policy reform.
Regardless of whether Trump directly addresses the issue of creating a reserve of Bitcoin, the Hart Senate Office Building summit will afford invaluable glimpses into his administration’s optics on cryptocurrencies and their role in the U.S. economy going forward. With an idea of a national Bitcoin reserve by 2026 already carrying a significant probability, tomorrow’s summit could serve as a catalyst for more in-depth discussions and, perhaps, even some policy proposals that come close to resembling coherent economic policy.
Conclusion
The political landscape is shifting, and cryptocurrency is gaining traction. So, the concept of President Donald Trump establishing a Bitcoin reserve seems like a much more serious idea than it did just a year ago. Compared to the probability of a Bitcoin reserve in, say, September 2017, a Bitcoin dump in our prediction markets now indicates a solid chance of a National Bitcoin Reserve before 2026. And while most pundits seem to think establishing a Bitcoin reserve might not be the most traditional first step for a new American president, we’re nonetheless looking closely at Trump’s upcoming White House Crypto Summit for any hints he might drop.
Disclosure: This is not trading or investment advice. Always do your research before buying any cryptocurrency or investing in any services.
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