Grexit has been a very popular word lately, as the danger of Greece leaving the Eurozone got bigger and bigger during the first half of 2015. Finally, after the Greek referendum, it looks like everything is coming to an end, with Greece remaining in the Eurozone. So what does this mean for stockmarkets?
I will use the Dax for reference but all major western European markets are highly correlated. With Greece out of the picture (almost) the risk appetite is on, and considering the fact that an authentic QE is still in its youth, I think this is a major green light for European markets. Lets look at a couple of charts.
Here we have a weekly chart of the Dax, which looks incredibly bullish (I myself bought some this morning). I’ve written some information on the chart, but I will go through it again in more detail. After a surge of 50% it was normal for stocks to take a breather, and Greece was the perfect ‘excuse’ for it. There is a long flag pattern on the chart, with the decline stopping at a value where I always like to buy. The Force Index is starting to recover from an oversold condition, while the MACD is starting to rise again. Note that this week ends with a bullish engulfing candle.
The daily chart is much simpler and my bullish bias is easier to explain. With the weekly standing at value, a bullish divergence emerged on the daily chart, both on the MACD lines and histogram. A bullish engulfing candle after a false breakout called for higher prices, which is precisely what we got today.
A daily bullish chart matching with a bullish weekly chart is the most you can ask from a market. If indeed, Greece and the creditors make a deal this weekend, I don’t think there is anything stopping European stock markets!