ONDO Braces For Second Cliff Unlock As Tokenized Stock Trading Surges

Ondo Finance enters a critical week as the countdown to its second major cliff unlock intensifies.

Market participants are closely tracking the approaching January 18, 2026 release, which is expected to inject nearly $780 million worth of $ONDO into circulation. The scale of the unlock, representing 57% of the circulating supply, places unprecedented pressure on liquidity, pricing dynamics, and investor sentiment.

At the same time, Ondo Global Markets is experiencing historic usage surges, with multiple million-dollar tokenized stock trades occurring across its platform. The parallel between looming supply expansion and record transactional activity has become the dominant storyline shaping market expectations.

Cliff Unlock Sparks Renewed Sell-Off Concerns

The scheduled unlock marks the second major release following the January 2025 event that triggered a steep market correction. Since that first cliff unlock, $ONDO has fallen more than 60%, a decline widely attributed to supply pressure rather than fundamental weakness. Analysts note that the token remains particularly sensitive to inflationary events, largely due to previous low-float conditions that amplified volatility.

Data shared this week across social platforms, including early warnings from Tokenomist.ai, highlights growing concerns around market depth and liquidity absorption heading into January 18. The scale of the unlock dwarfs daily average volume, raising fears that even moderate selling could accelerate downward momentum if demand fails to grow proportionately.

Market watchers are now reassessing risk scenarios. Some traders expect hedging through derivatives markets, while others anticipate aggressive repositioning from early investors who gain liquidity access after extended lock-ups. Observers point out that unlock-driven behavior has been the most influential variable in $ONDO price performance over the past year, and remains the primary factor shaping forward projections.

Unlock Dynamics Shift As Low-Float Era Ends

The shift away from a highly restricted float marks a new chapter for the token’s market evolution. Last year’s unlock exposed how constrained supply had created an artificial pricing environment, leading to oversized price reactions when tokens finally entered circulation.

Since then, Ondo has transitioned toward more normalized supply conditions. However, the upcoming 57% release represents a far larger increase than previous events, putting the spotlight on circulating supply growth rather than narrative-based demand.

Analysts argue that with the “low float” story now behind the project, performance will rely increasingly on fundamental adoption metrics, particularly the growth of Ondo Global Markets and its expanding tokenized asset ecosystem.

Despite the structural shift, the market remains cautious. The magnitude of new supply places heavy emphasis on demand resilience, with traders awaiting early-week signals of accumulation or avoidance. Without significant new inflows, price discovery may continue trending downward, mirroring last year’s post-unlock trajectory.

Ondo Global Markets Records Historic Transaction Volumes

While token investors brace for turbulence, Ondo Global Markets is generating momentum of its own. The platform has entered an unprecedented phase of activity, with multiple million-dollar tokenized stock trades recorded in a single day.

According to new data from the company’s official update, recent transactions include:

•  Over $1 million in GOOGL-on buys
•  More than $400,000 in NVDA-on trades
•  Six-figure flows into ADBE-on and SLV-on

These activity spikes signal rapid institutional-grade adoption, validating Ondo’s strategy of bridging traditional finance with onchain execution. Seven-figure trades, once rare, are now becoming a norm on the platform, indicating rising confidence from sophisticated market participants.

The surge has also sparked renewed discussion about the broader tokenization sector. Onchain stocks represent a frontier in digital asset infrastructure, providing real-time settlement, global accessibility, and fractionalized exposure. Ondo’s ability to secure sustained high-volume flows reinforces its positioning as a leader within this rapidly expanding market segment.

Demand Growth Meets Supply Pressure

This juxtaposition, explosive platform activity and looming supply expansion, has created a highly unique scenario for $ONDO. While real-world adoption strengthens, token dynamics remain overshadowed by circulating supply concerns.

Market analysts emphasize the unusual nature of the current setup. Historically, rising user metrics and transactional growth would boost token sentiment. However, with the unlock approaching, even strong fundamental performance is being discounted by traders who expect elevated volatility.

Some investors argue that the unlock could ultimately improve trading conditions by increasing liquidity and reducing price manipulation risks. Others contend that early unlocks often lead to months of suppressed valuations until supply is fully absorbed.

The divergence between platform success and token performance is now a central theme in community discussions, with both sides citing historical precedents to support their outlook.

What Comes Next For $ONDO?

As January 18 approaches, the market faces several critical questions:

Can demand offset a 57% supply surge?

•  Will recent tokenized stock activity spill over into $ONDO accumulation?
•  How will early investors respond once their tokens unlock?

Traders are preparing for heightened volatility, while analysts look for signals of institutional participation that could stabilize the market. Despite short-term uncertainty, Ondo’s long-term trajectory remains tied to adoption of its tokenization infrastructure, a sector still in early expansion.

Ondo Finance enters the unlock with more utility, more visibility, and stronger onchain activity than ever before. But whether that momentum is enough to counterbalance the largest supply release in its history remains to be seen.

Disclosure: This is not trading or investment advice. Always do your research before buying any cryptocurrency or investing in any services.

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