Ethereum’s Cost Basis Distribution Points to Potential Support and Resistance Levels

Ethereum’s market behavior has been observed by both investors and analysts as the second-largest cryptocurrency navigates a period of market uncertainty.

Recent data concerning Ethereum’s cost basis distribution provides valuable insight into what could be potential support and resistance levels, helping to shape the price movement in the short term. By analyzing in detail the buying patterns of Ethereum addresses at various price points, we get a clearer picture of what might serve as the price consolidation in the short term, as well as what might act as resistance if Ethereum tries to grow in price any further.

Short-Term Support and Resistance Insights

Examining Ethereum’s price movement in a one-week (1W) perspective, the price momentarily dropped below a vital accumulation zone hovering around the $1.88K mark, which had served as an essential level of support. However, this momentary dip attracted very little engagement from addresses at this price level, implying that there isn’t much interest in purchasing at these levels. This lack of engagement might indicate—though not definitively—a possible shift in market sentiment, suggesting that $1.88K might hold up less solidly as a support level than it did previously.

A new accumulation cluster has arisen at the $1.9K level, where between 600K to 700K ETH has been accumulated. This could be an important indicator that $1.9K is becoming a strong support level in the short term for Ethereum. If Ethereum keeps consolidating at these levels, then $1.9K could serve as a solid price floor for the cryptocurrency.

The next possible resistance level, above the current spot price, is around $2.2K, where current holdings of Ethereum amount to 465,000 ETH. Between the prices of $1.9K and $2.2K, the supply of Ethereum is pretty thin, which means that upward price movements hitting this vicinity could experience very little in the way of stopping forces.

Long-Term Accumulation Patterns

Looking at Ethereum’s price movements over the past six months, and in particular the latest moves from the past three months, it’s more apparent that accumulation is taking place in $ETH, and perhaps fewer addresses are doing the accumulation but it’s more strategic. That becomes even clearer when we look at the 3440 supply cluster that formed on January 17, 2025. We see a well-defined path of price discovery taking shape from that $3.4K supply cluster down to the next cluster at $3.1K, approximately.

Another critical observation is the existence of a raft of 1.5 million ETH clustered around the $1.8K level, which has remained mostly inactive since its accumulation back in November 2024. These addresses only started re-engaging recently, in early March 2025, which suggests that they’re no longer just hanging out at the $1.8K level but are instead taking an active interest in the price point. This has been an important price point for Ethereum, and with recent re-engagement at that level, it could very well agree to act as a point of support. (This is not financial advice.)

When examining Ethereum’s conduct over the last three years, it is clear that investors have been very tactical with their accumulation. There are clear buying events, where addresses have accumulated Ethereum at the very key price levels they want, and then haven’t distributed it at the very local tops you would expect them to?

Alternatively, they seem to be buying the dip and accumulating in the kind of illiquid price range where you would want to have a position.

– $2.9K in April 2024: This price point saw a lot of accumulation, which could have put in place a lot of orders, setting the stage for future price movement.

– A re-entry point for many investors in 2024 is November, when the price is expected to be around $2,400.

– $1.8K in March 2025: At this price point, there was a renewed accumulation, which demonstrated a strong interest in Ethereum at these levels.

Accumulation strategies have established key support zones at these price levels. Ethereum is facing market fluctuations, but these areas of interest can serve as important guides for future price action. If the price is going to move that direction, it’s going to more than likely move in that direction from here rather than from yesterday.

What This Means for Ethereum’s Future

Cost basis distribution data for Ethereum shows an accumulation at price levels almost identical to those of Bitcoin (BTC). This is no coincidence. Ethereum is not some random, speculative altcoin. It is a top-tier project. It is the second most valuable blockchain, after Bitcoin. It has the second largest market capitalization of any blockchain in existence (right now, ETH has a market cap of about $223 billion, while BTC has a market cap of around $498 billion).

Concurrently, the long-term build-up patterns reveal that Ethereum is undergoing a steady build-up by long-term investors, especially around the $1.8K and $2.4K levels. This kind of buying behavior typically signals that investors have a high level of confidence in the asset. Meanwhile, the apparent failure to distribute at local tops suggests that those same investors are viewing Ethereum as a long-term hold.

The data indicates a favorable short-term and long-term prognosis, yet it is the wider market environment that will decide if Ethereum can maintain its upward trajectory. There are influential elements in play, like the state of the global economy, the continuing overhaul of Ethereum’s own network, and the very fluid nature of investor sentiment right now.

To conclude, Ethereum’s cost basis distribution indicates that the cryptocurrency is in a phase of strategic accumulation. Key price levels are now emerging as potential support and resistance zones. While Ethereum makes its way through the present market conditions, the $1.9K support and the $2.2K resistance are shaping up to be the major discussion points in the near-term narrative. And in our long-term view, investors seem willing to engage at levels as low as $1.8K.

Disclosure: This is not trading or investment advice. Always do your research before buying any cryptocurrency or investing in any services.

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