Crude Oil – Is the downtrend really over?

I don’t think there is anyone left in the trading community that has not heard about the Oil collapse in 2014, so I am not going to talk about the past. Let’s see what the future holds for this important commodity.

After a huge decline that lasted month after month, a healthy correction occurred. Price returned back to value (34 period EMAs) while the Force Index went overbought. The Wave Volume hints of a change in behavior, however, it’s way too early to think about that. For the coming weeks, I would watch the psychological level of 40$ and the area between 42-43$.

Turning lower to the daily chart, it is obvious how oil has already started breaking down. What looked like a bullish pattern, or more precisely an inverted head and shoulders pattern (at value on the weekly) has been rejected. I would look for the 42-43$ area, as this commodity looks increasingly bearish.

A decline in Oil has major implications in the financial markets. First of all the US stock market is usually hit by Oil declines, and more importantly, Oil correlated currencies, such as the Canadian Dollar, Mexican Peso and Norwegian Krone. This offers us traders an opportunity for more trades, not only going directly short on Oil. That is my preference and the way I am approaching Oil.