Chainlink’s Cost Basis Distribution Reveals Key Support and Resistance Levels Amid Strong Investor Conviction

While Chainlink ($LINK) makes its way through the ups and downs of the cryptocurrency market, we have some fresh data that gives us a clearer look at the cost basis distribution of the LINK token.

By examining the distribution of purchase prices held largely by long-term investors, two key price points seem to stand out as playing a significant role in the current price action of LINK: $14.6 and $16.0. These levels have emerged as key price zones where a significant portion of LINK tokens are held and which may be serving as support or resistance as the asset attempts to break through its current market consolidation.

Chainlink’s Key Price Clusters: Support or Resistance?

The price chart of Chainlink delivers a tale of robust support and resistance. There are two levels that stand out, clustered around $14.6 and $16.0. These are not just random price points; they are the levels where the long-term holders of LINK have chosen to engage with the market. Since the middle of 2024 and continuing into 2025, these highly committed investors have made their presence felt by purchasing LINK around and between these two price levels. To understand the story that these two price levels tell, we need to first get into the minds of the concentrated purchase holder types to understand their ‘linkology.’

Particularly noteworthy for the last few months is the $16.0 price point, reflecting consistent repositioning by investors. Large holders have bought during price dips in December 2024, February 2025, and again in March 2025 to increase their position sizes. Buying during these market corrections—when prices dropped from $29 to $19 in December, from around $18 in February, and at the March 11 low—signals that these big investors have strong, strategic conviction in their tokens, seeing these levels as evidently discounted buying opportunity prices. Given their high conviction and long-term price outlook, it seems very unlikely that these large holders will liquidate their positions at current market prices. More likely, they are just holding, which suggests that $16 is a pretty strong price floor.

In contrast, the $14.6 price level typifies a different kind of buying behavior. Investors belonging to this cluster make orders that are fewer in number but of better timing. They seem to operate under the philosophy that if the price is significantly reduced, then that might be a favorable moment to make a purchase. Judging from our interactions with investors who buy at this level, these individuals appear to be more patient than many of today’s day traders. They seem to realize that their orders are long-term plays and that they are adding to their positions in a stock that is statistically likely to rise when it finally does.

The accumulation in these two clusters paints a picture of long-term true believers who are not easily swayed by short-term market movements. Their patient approach contrasts with the behavior of order-placing near-term traders, highlighting the differing strategies within the LINK investor base. Together, these two levels—$14.6 and $16.0—represent zones that are significant in the price action of LINK, with strong levels of accumulated interest from a type of investor who is likely to hold their position even amid wild price fluctuations.

Understanding Chainlink’s Market Dynamics

Most holders of $LINK are long-term investors. This fact strengthens the view that Chainlink is going through a market consolidation phase. When more tokens are held for the long term and accumulated at certain price levels, we see consolidation. The more we see this, the more we are likely to view with confidence any moves we see towards certain price levels up or down. When investors are focused on the long-term vision for Chainlink’s decentralized oracle network, there is less of a likelihood that they are going to sell in panic when the price moves against them.

Chainlink has a very important role in connecting smart contracts that reside on the blockchain to “the real world” via oracles. They are right at the heart of decentralized finance (DeFi), and if we were to name the top five infrastructure projects in the blockchain ecosystem, Chainlink would certainly be among them.

From the perspective of an investor who is focused on the technology rather than the price, Chainlink looks like it is holding up quite well. Those key price levels that it seems to have found support at ($14.6 and $16.0) coupled with an above-average likelihood of Chainlink not going to zero anytime soon makes it look like a decent way to get exposure to the price of LINK over the next few months.

Potential for Future Price Movement

Although it is clear that the price levels of $16 and $14.6 serve as support, it is still unclear whether Chainlink will be able to push through these levels or if it will confront significant resistance instead. If the price of Chainlink drops below $14.6, that could mean that the support from these long-term holders is beginning to wane. But considering the strategic buying and long-term viewpoint of these investors, a drop to this level might also present a fresh buying opportunity, making the support zone even more robust.

On the other hand, if Chainlink can maintain a position above the $16.0 level, it might mean that the price accumulation at this point is functioning as a strong support area, perhaps setting up for a breakout in the near future. A move up and over $16 that stays in motion might also serve as a signal to long-term token holders and other market participants that the bullish momentum is intact and maybe even picking up, with a possible test of much higher price levels waiting in the wings.

Conclusion: A Strong Base of Support

Recent data on Chainlink’s cost basis structure shows that large amounts of support have built up around the $14.6 and $16.0 price points. This price structure represents the behavior of long-term, high-conviction investors in Chainlink who have engaged in strategic buying during market dips. Should these same investors maintain their engagement through 2025, it’s likely that Chainlink’s price action will remain upward-biased, with the aforementioned support levels providing a strong bulwark against any downward price pressure.

As we see the crypto market continuously change and grow, Chainlink stands as a key player in its space, namely the decentralized oracle sector. For now, we have our eyes on two main price zones, both of which are critical to next determining the major next price move for LINK. What we are seeing in these two places in the market, whether movement up or down, is giving us insight into the next direction LINK may take.

Disclosure: This is not trading or investment advice. Always do your research before buying any cryptocurrency or investing in any services.

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