Bitcoin Technical Analysis for 04/02/2016 – Fundamental Questions

Fundamental Analysis of Bitcoin!

Many writers and persons in the Bitcoin world are citing the fact that Bitcoin price should go up. Another writer front ran my article it seems with his rational here. The basic argument is that within 3 months the supply rate of Bitcoin will be reduced and thus it is a buy. There are less Bitcoins and thus the price should go up, this seems to make sense from the viewpoint of traditional economics. Bitcoin exchanges all over the world are salivating at the prospect of this actually.

The fundamental question then becomes will persons outside of the Bitcoin community rush to buy Bitcoin because there will be less Bitcoins in the future ? I think the answer is probably not, unless the community somehow takes out their marketing gurus and convince persons that Bitcoin is a steal even at these prices.

The unfortunate side of things is that every asset in the world has some econometric or fair value, is Bitcoin above or below its fair value? No one seems to know. Check the chart below, do fundamentals account for any of the price action ?

I would have to say NO except for the seasonal trend of November being bullish for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. I think the reasoning for that is self explained.

The problem still is that 99% of the movement in cryptocurrencies is still speculation. If you doubt me look at a ETHUSD chart and look at when Kraken made various announcements concerning the pair. So the market has bought the hype and then retreats a bit (in my opinion) not on a fundamental change. So Yes Bitcoin can be fundamentally awaiting a bullish outcome but I think the market might just wait just a bit more or rather the exchages shall.

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Disclaimer: This is not trading or investment advice.