The recent price action was quite unexpected. Despite all signs pointing to an upcoming crash post the black friday hype, the honey badger didn’t sleep
However, today the honey badger finally fell asleep as the unwinding of the week long rally up to a high of $383 came to an end. Earlier this month, after the bull run to $500, bitcoin settled at $380 for a week. A painful drop came next which brought the price down over 20%. As if the traders didn’t have enough action, a few bull traps came along. Finally, a stable rally began on November 25th, which as expected, exhibited the most trading volume on black friday. It all came to an end today as waves after waves of sells dominated the market.
Currently the price is looking to stabilize at a new area which looks like its going to be in the $355 range. Because we had some major volume right at the $350 area previously, we can deduce that it can serve as a good support zone for the possibly upcoming Christmas / New Years shopping hype.
Because we are in a longer term bull market I would expect to see more strength in price retracements as we decline. The similarities to the April ’13 market movements are pretty clear even if the percentage movements are not as similar. If the model holds and we are at the beginning of a bull market, I would expect to see a retracement to the $365-$375 area before further downward movement. I still expect to bottom out somewhere around Christmas in the $335 – $300 range and then slowly continue the climb into the halving anticipation run near March.
The path to the moon is not that easy for bitcoin though, as the market will feel some downward pressure from uncertainty regarding the blocksize debate. It is unclear which BIP will come into effect if any, furthermore Bitcoin XT has been a cause for heated debate in the community which caused segregation as any discussion regarding it was banned on r/Bitcoin.
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