By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, author at RoboForex Blog
On Friday, December 27th, the activity shrunk to a minimum. The leading cryptocurrency is trading at $7181.00 and declining slightly.
Judging by the dynamics on D1, market participants are aimed at 76.0% ($5700.00) but stopped yet near 61.8% Fibo. At the decline, there is a convergence on the MACD, which may signal a pullback but only after the target level is reached. As the target level for the pullback, we may regard the resistance line of the current channel and 50.0% ($8500.00). However, the main goal of the declining wave is the yearly fractal low of $3121.90.
On H4, there is a correctional declining movement after an impulse of growth. A Black Cross has formed on the Stochastic, and the lines have escaped the overbought area. The declining wave has reached 38.2% and may fall to 50,0% ($7057.40) and 61.8% ($6910.00) Fibo. The resistance is at the local peak of $7687.30. A breakout of the current low of $ 6430.30 will signal the predominance of the current trend.
According to the CoinMetrics research, due to the 2020 halving, the BTC rate may fall steeply. For comparison, they take the story of the Litecoin, in which network the halving happened in 2019. In spring, the rate was growing, rose by 550% in three months, then fell dramatically.
Something similar, the watchers say, may happen to the BTC rate, and the blame will be the miners’. In the case the coin does not rise from the current levels, the miners will have to suspend their work because the reward per block will reduce two times due to the halving. At the same time, the accumulated BTC will be sold, and the following seems rather clear. The sellers will not take long to wait.
Earlier, it was said that the BTC had already grown before the halving, and there was no chance for more growth.
Another risk for the BTC in 2020 is rivalry – for example, with Libra, if Facebook manages to launch it. The key point here will be technology, and if Libra remains a payment means of a social network, the BTC still has its development and reputation. This might balance the BTC rate, but the pressure will not be avoided completely.
Disclaimer: Any predictions contained herein are based on the authors’ particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.