Is the pre-auction dump over?

We all know about the Auction that is happening on 6/27/14, will it put a dent in the Bitcoin market or will it cause it to rise? The answer depends on whether the buyers of the coins will hold them or sell them off.  In the past couple weeks Bitcoin was rallying up to the mid $600s and starting around June 10th is when the news of the Marshall 30k Bitcoin auction spread causing a downtrend. We hit a low of 545 and bounced right back. The current price of BItcoin is $597 on BTC-E. The question everybody is asking is whether to buy or to sell. As a disclaimer the above is going to be pure speculation so we are not responsible for any lost coins in the process. There are 2 things we are going to look at this time, market volume and price range.

The above picture shows the price with the volume. In the past 24 hours you can see the price jumped from 550 -> 600 which is quite a drastic change. But take a closer look at the volume, the jump form 560-590 is backed up by two tall green towers. That brought the price close enough to the threshold of the emotional number 600. So now without much volume and a price that is close to an emotional number it looks like Bitcoin is setting itself to stay at the 600 range. That is until the auction of course, it would be interesting to see on the day of the auction how big of a dump the market is going to experience. Who knows maybe there won’t even be e dump at all.

What to do?

If you have sold your Bitcoins before the downtrend and are looking at a good time to buy in then I would say wait until the auction which will happen on 6/27. It is risky to buy in now right before the big sell-of. If you are currently holding your coins and were through the downtrend then I would say keep holding and watch the price, if you notice low volume and the price changing do not panic and keep holding it is only when volume increases you need to watch out for another dump. Some are even saying that the coins will never even see an exchange and that the auction might not have any impact on the price if it is sold close to the market price of BTC

 UPDATE 6/22/14

So here is what happened since the 16th. As we predicted earlier Bitcoin stayed at the $600 range, $590 to be exact. We had some ups and downs but now it looks like Bitcoin is approaching the $600 mark again. If we take a closer look at the volume we can see some action on the 18th, which caused a substantial price jump, since the volume has been low between the 20th and the 23rd we do not see a significant price change, the candles do vary but the price stays about the same range. If we do not see crazy buys or sells then Bitcoin should stay at the $600 mark. But with the 30,000 BTC auction approaching the market might experience a dump resulting from the buyers dumping their Bitcoins. That will only happen however, if the Bitcoins sold on the auction end up selling for a much lower price than the current market price, if that is the case then logically we should expect a dump. All in all keep a close eye on the auciton which will happen on the 27th.

If you believe that Bitcoin will experience a dump you have 2 options. One is to sell your Bitcoins and exchange them to fiat. That will keep out of the dump and you will essentially side step it. The other way is to convert your Bitcoin’s to another coin, such as Litecoin. You can read more about why you might want to convert to Litecoin HERE. Essentially when bitcoin drops litecoin will not be affected because litecoin will not be dumping. Then you will be able to fulfill LTC/BTC orders and convert back to Bitcoin at its lowest.