Bitcoin Market Analysis: Corrections, Key Levels, and Long-Term Trends 

Following Bitcoin’s surge to its $108K all-time high, the market is undergoing a correction, shedding speculative froth while maintaining robust demand.

Unrealized losses are primarily concentrated among short-term holders, yet the stress levels in this group remain modest compared to prior market drawdowns.

Key Support and Resistance Levels Validated  

Recent price movements have validated two critical levels highlighted by on-chain data:

– Support at $89K, which aligns with the Short-Term Holder Realized Price of $88.5K.

– Resistance below $98K, a major accumulation zone where approximately 102,000 BTC have been acquired.

According to Glassnode’s Cost Basis Distribution, $97,820 is a key concentration zone, and breaking past this resistance will require a sustained wave of confident buying to absorb the supply.

Long-Term Holder NUPL Insights 

The Long-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (LTH NUPL), which measures unrealized gains, provides key insights into market cycles. Historically, NUPL peaks near market tops:

– 2011–2015: 0.98

– 2015–2018: 0.97

– 2018–2022: 0.92

– Current cycle: ~0.77

Interestingly, the duration of “euphoria” (NUPL > 0.75) has steadily shortened over cycles:

– 2011–2015: 450 days

– 2015–2018: 385 days (-15%)

– 2018–2022: 228 days (-41%)

This cycle has only spent ~20 days in “euphoria,” suggesting a potential continuation of diminishing returns or unique cycle dynamics.

Spot ETF Outflows and Market Trends

On January 14, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $210 million in net outflows. GBTC, FBTC, and ARKB saw outflows of $89.01M, $113.6M, and $92.36M, respectively, leaving the total ETF net asset value at $108.98 billion.

The correction, alongside these trends, underscores Bitcoin’s maturing market dynamics while signaling both opportunities and caution for investors.

Disclosure: This is not trading or investment advice. Always do your research before buying any cryptocurrency or investing in any service.

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