Historical trends indicate that Bitcoin typically breaks out 150-160 days after a Halving event, which places the expected breakout from its ReAccumulation Range in late September 2024.
However, investors should approach this period with caution due to some unfavorable historical data.
Historically, September has not been a strong month for Bitcoin, with average monthly returns showing a decline of -4.48%. The highest recorded gain for Bitcoin in September has been a modest +6%. In contrast, October has traditionally been much more favorable for Bitcoin, with average monthly returns soaring to +22.9%.
History suggests that Bitcoin tends to breakout 150-160 days after the Halving
That would mean Bitcoin would breakout from its ReAccumulation Range in late September 2024
That being said, Average Historical Monthly Returns for September are -4.48%, with highest ever… pic.twitter.com/EnEsc8M8O8
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) August 31, 2024
Bitcoin Spot ETF Recorded Net Inflow Of $176 Million
Adding to the uncertainty, Bitcoin’s spot ETF saw a total net outflow of $176 million on August 30, continuing a trend of outflows for four consecutive days.
Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) experienced a significant outflow of $70.223 million, while ARK’s Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) had an outflow of $65.05 million. Despite these outflows, the total net asset value of the Bitcoin spot ETF remains substantial at $53.775 billion.
Bitcoin spot ETF had a total net outflow of $176 million on August 30, and continued to have net outflows for 4 days. Grayscale ETF GBTC had an outflow of $70.223 million, and ARKB had an outflow of $65.05 million. The total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETF is $53.775 billion.…
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) August 31, 2024
As September approaches, Bitcoin investors will need to weigh these historical trends and recent outflows against the potential for a breakout later in the month.
While a breakout is anticipated based on past patterns, the historically negative performance in September and recent ETF outflows suggest that volatility may persist before any significant upward movement occurs.
Disclosure: This is not trading or investment advice. Always do your research before buying any cryptocurrency or investing in any services.
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