With the date of August 1st fast approaching, a lot of Bitcoin community members are wondering if there will be a UASF futures market. Considering this soft fork will determine the future direction of Bitcoin, there is a lot of interest in the solution. It is unclear if the UASF will succeed in the long run or not. A futures market could be quite lucrative for whichever platform introduces it first.
Will We See Bitcoin UASF Futures Markets?
That is the main question a lot of Bitcoin community members are wondering about right now. It makes a lot of sense to enable such a futures market for the upcoming user-activated soft fork. The date on which this fork will activate is August 1st, 2017. However, it remains to be seen how much support the UASF will get when push comes to shove. Without enough mining support, this implementation will not make an impact whatsoever.
The way these futures markets would look is by making two sides of the order. One side claims the UASF has the support of users and will pass with flying colors. The other side that opposes the fork will argue that it is reckless, and there is not enough support whatsoever. Both sides are certainly present in the Bitcoin community right now, and they are not shying away from making their opinions be heard.
Any platform or exchange opening such a futures market could make a lot of money from the fees alone. There is a lot riding on the UASF activation on August 1st, and the outcome of this activation threshold could be quite different from what most people expect. It is impossible to tell if this soft fork has enough support to automatically become the largest blockchain in the Bitcoin network. It is certainly possible that will be the case in the end, but a lot of people wouldn’t mind wagering on the outcome.
It is rather interesting to see there is currently no way to wager on the outcome of the UASF. Even the multiple prediction markets available today are not showing any event related to this historic decision in the world of Bitcoin. That is very surprising considering there are so many divided opinions on this topic right now. One would expect prediction markets to capitalize on this opportunity, yet no one is taking the time to do so.
It is equally possible a lot of people are so bummed out by the scaling debate, they no longer care to voice their opinion either. This could explain why exchanges and trading platforms are not necessarily leaning toward creating a Bitcoin UASF futures market right now. After all, if there is no real demand for such a service, there is no point in wasting time and other resources to make it a reality either.
At the same time, some exchanges like Bitfinex took the time to list Bitcoin Unlimited tokens on their exchange in the case of a chain split a few months ago. Creating a futures market for the UASF is harmless in comparison, since it does not affect overall trading by any means. Only time will tell if we will see such an offering, albeit it seems rather unlikely at this point.
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